Mr. Asif Ali Zardari, President of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, has suddenly decided to visit the Sufi shrine of Hazrat Khwaja Muinuddin Chishti at Ajmer Sharif in India, a place of important pilgrimage for Berelvi and Sufi Muslims of the subcontinent. He has also accepted an offer to lunch with the Indian Prime Minister, Man Mohan Singh, on April 8. Though it is being claimed by the advisor of Mr. Zardari, Farhatullah Babar, that the visit had been in the offing for the past one year and had not materialized suddenly, this excuse is not entirely convincing. Let me state why.
It is a common practice amongst the religiously inclined, to promise to visit a particular shrine if Divine intervention helps them in being cured of an illness, or delivered from a particularly difficult situation etc. This is especially so in the Indian subcontinent and from that angle, Zardari has every reason to visit Ajmer Sharif. He seems to have recovered from a purported stroke that led to a mild facial paralysis in December 2011, for treating which he was flown to Dubai and where he remained for two weeks before returning to Pakistan. But, not many, except the hardcore jiyalas of the Peoples Party of Pakistan (PPP), were convinced that the President had indeed suffered a stroke and had gone to Dubai to recover and recuperate under more able medical hands there than were available in Islamabad. I don't blame the nay-sayers because Pakistan's history of deceit, deception, double-crossing and lying is such that nobody believes anything being said in Pakistan, least of all by the politicians. To be fair to the Pakistanis, they do not only practice these fine arts particularly well against the Indians and the Americans (and to varying degrees against the rest of the world including the sweeter-than-the-sweetest-honey friend China) but also against each other amongst themselves. Instances are aplenty and I will reserve them for another post. At that time when Zardari fled to Dubai, he was under immense pressure from the Pakistani Army (PA) with the recently exploded 'Memogate' scandal consuming all of Pakistan. One has to remember that there is absolutely no love lost between the Bhutto clan and the PA. Unfortunately for the PA, the long-standing Master, the United States of America, facilitated the return of Ms. Benazir Bhutto from her partly self-imposed and partly Musharraf-imposed exile, and her participation in the elections. Her return came as a big blow to the ambitions of the ruling coterie, Gen. Musharraf and the PML-Q Chief Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain. They rightly feared their continuing retention of power. With the huge support for her everywhere she went, with the dislike for Gen. Musharraf's rule, with the pre-poll alliance between the two largest parties of PPP and PML-N, with the dire economic situation, and with the country-wide lawyers' agitation against Gen. Musharraf's high-handedness in dismissing the Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) and declaring an Emergency, Ms. Bhutto's victory was a foregone conclusion. The only way out for Gen. Musharraf and the King's party that was supporting him, was to physically eliminate Ms. Benazir Bhutto, after having successfully tackled Nawaz Sharif by re-exiling him in an unexpected minor side-drama. They proceeded to implement their diabolical plot. However, they did not expect the turn of events that followed the assassination of Ms. Bhutto, leading to the PPP seizing power due to overwhelming public sympathy and through deft manoeuvres along with PML-N. To add insult to injury, Gen. Musharraf had to vacate the Presidency in favour of PA's most despised man (and to be fair to the PA, by a large section of the people of Pakistan too), Asif Ali Zardari. Indeed, fatefully, Gen. Musharraf had to himself leave the country in an un-announced exile. Since that time, the PA has tried many tricks to oust Zardari. Nothing succeeded though Zardari came close to being sent packing a couple of times. Credit partly goes to Zardari for managing the situation successfully so far and partly to other circumstances.
However, the situation was very critical when Zardari decided to fly to Dubai on a dubious medical emergency. There was pressure on him from the PA to resign or face the very real possibility of an army coup if he resisted. Mr. Zardari knew that no world power or leader would come to his help if he ended up in prison, other than issuing some inane statements. His father-in-law. Zulfikar Ali Butto, was executed with impunity by Gen. Zia-ul-Haq. Except for customary noises, nobody intervened. His wife was brutally murdered and the murderer freely lives and lectures in Western countries. Though he endured solitary confinement and physical abuses during his previous incarceration, Zardari was much older now and was unwilling to undergo once again that cruelty. So, he escaped to Dubai with the triple intention of cooling down the unbearably rising political temperature, escaping the possible coup and the consequent stint in the Attock prison overlooking the Indus near Peshawar, and planning with his friends his next moves. The PA had played a neat game, using the widespread public hatred against the USA after especially the Salala incident, to its advantage by depicting Zardari as an ally of the US conspiring against the nationalist and Islamist PA. The matter was deadly serious because Zardari would get no sympathy even from the jiyalas. The judiciary of the Pakistani Supreme Court which also has a score to settle with Zardari interposed itself in the matter leading to further troubles for him. The troubles are continuing what with his confidante and incumbent Prime Minister Gilani about to be sentenced for contempt of court and removed from power. Zardari's political troubles are about to snowball in the coming weeks. Like Pakistan since its inception, Zardari is also moving from one trouble to a bigger next trouble.
For its part, the PA certainly wants to get rid of Zardari and his PPP as quickly as possible. The PA, apart from its hatred for the Bhuttos and their political party for historical reasons, are also feeling threatened by Zardari and Gilani's words and actions against its interests since coming to power in c. 2008. Since then, the Zardari and Gilani combine has astonishingly tried to tame the PA and the notorious Inter Services Intelligence (ISI). First, they decided to bring the ISI under civilian control which indeed misfired within a few hours and the orders had to be withdrawn hurriedly. But, the effort was well worth recognizing since nobody before had attempted this. Then, Zardari bravely attempted to redefine the nuclear doctrine to 'No First Use' (NFU) all by himself, which again fell through. Again, the attempt needs recognition. The Pakistani Supreme Commander described India as not the threat facing the country, puncturing the PA's raison d'etre. After 26/11, Gilani agreed to send the ISI Chief to India, which he had to retract immediately under PA/ISI pressure. Normally, I would have called it a coordinated drama between the civilians and the khakhis, but this appeared genuine to me. Then, the political setup agreed to the Kerry-Lugar-Berman bill, which imposed restrictions on the PA and directly named the LeT, but the bill had to be eventually diluted as the PA put its foot down and the Americans dithered and surrendered to the Pakistani khakhis. Even the extension of the terms of COAS Gen. Kayani and DG, ISI Lt. Gen. Pasha in c. 2010, was not automatic and they were kept on tenterhooks for quite a while before the announcements were made. This was so even when the US had indicated its desire for the continuation of these two. When the episode of the CIA Agent Raymond Davis erupted, Gilani eased out the PA's most trenchant supporter in the cabinet Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi. Gilani's recent taking on of Kayani, through the interview to Xinhua, or in the National Assembly, and his sarcastic remarks about the type of visa given to OBL for staying in Abbottabad, were unprecedented. He then sacked the Lt. Gen. who was the choice of Gen. Kayani for Defence Secretary's post and for the first time, since the 70s, appointed a civilian as the Defence Secretary. The Defence Secretary had earlier stated in an affidavit in the Supreme Court in connection with the Memogate that the PA and the ISI were not under the operational control of the Ministry of Defence(MoD). An angry Gilani used the opportunity to get rid of a PA-appointee by blaming him for causing a rift between the govt and the PA, a nice excuse which put the PA on the mat. He added insult to PA's injury by replacing the mard-e-momin Lt. Gen. with a woman. Gen. Kayani immediately changed the Commander of the 111 Brigade, a brigade which is always used to stage the military coup in Islamabad. But, the threat, if it was one, did not cause a ripple. I have not seen such concerted efforts to tame the PA and the ISI anytime before, except when Zulfikar Ali Bhutto toyed with his Service Chiefs after becoming the Chief Martial Law Administrator (CMLA) in the wake of the massive 1971 defeat. The 'Memogate' issue has been fizzling out. The ISI Chief, Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha who orchestrated many a campaign against Zardari including the latest Memogate, has been shown the exit without being offered an extension. It is no wonder therefore that the PA and the ISI are gunning for the head of Zardari, figuratively, I hope. They are propping up Imran Khan and the powerful Lashkar-e-Tayba (LeT) as well as sundry other Islamist and jihadi outfits under the banner of Diffa-e-Pakistan Council (DPC) to fight both Zardari and Nawaz Sharif in the imminent elections. While Zardari might have weathered the storm so far, the future is increasingly bleak for him and his party politically.
Be that as it may, Zardari is hemmed in from other directions as well. The economy is doing pretty badly. Of course, it was never shining in the last 65 years on its own steam, though die-hard Pakistanis want everyone to believe that in the 60s, Pakistan was a Tiger economy and the rest of Asia was simply dying to copy its economic miracle. The various Human Development indices place Pakistan in the category of a Least Developed Country (LDC). Increasingly, Pakistan is being mentioned in the same breath as Sudan, Somalia and similar nations. Pakistan has attracted not more than USD 400 million as investment this current year. The Friends of Democratic Pakistan (FoDP) are hesitatnt to help. The electric power situation is so horrible even before the summer has set in. The non-availability of natural gas, as well as electricity, has hit hard the only worthwhile industry of Pakistan, the textile industry, which alone brings in 70% of the foreign exchange earnings. The quantitative easing by the European Union, through GSP+, cannot therefore be taken advantage of by Pakistan. Non-availability of petroleum products and their steep price are affecting the Pakistani transportation system, especially the Railways which is already reeling under the non-functioning of the defective Chinese railway engines. The world economic situation is itself such that Pakistan should not expect its usual succour from others anytime soon. Even the Chinese are unable to help Pakistani economy much. In December, 2011, the leading Chinese bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China had withdrawn from plans to head a consortium meant to finance the $1.6-billion Pakistani portion of the IPI (Iran-Pakistan-India) gas pipeline. A couple of months earlier, a Chinese coal-mining company had abruptly cancelled a huge contract to develop the Tharparkar coal seams in the Sind citing worsening security situation especially for the Chinese workers. As they say, another door opens whenever one is shut. The Chinese company's pull-out must leave the field wide open for the erstwhile nuclear and missile scientist and the new coal expert, Dr. Samar Mubarakmund, to speedily implement his coal gassification plant there. Thus, Pakistan's smart idea of playing China against the US has come a cropper. Realizing this, Pakistan has started making concilliatory moves vis-a-vis the USA. This time, even the acclaimed Pakistani tactical brilliance failed miserably. The usual floods are around the corner too. Pakistan is stretched on all fronts. Overall, therefore, the situation is very bleak for Pakistan.
Therefore, Zardari has perforce to seek aid from wherever he can get. Even 'mortal kafir enemy' India, for that matter. The Indian Prime Minister, who is willing to even travel the whole distance to meet his Pakistani counterpart at the slightest hint, sees a great opportunity for bringing peace to the troubled India-Pakistan relationship. He is now resigned to his analysis that Pakistan will never change and the only option left for him is to help them see Indian generosity hoping that somehow their mindset will change a wee bit after that. The Indian side might have also been alarmed by the possibility of Imran Khan and his jihadi, PA and Islamist supporters coming to power in c. 2013, not far away from the D-Day in Afghanistan by mid-2014. Indian assessment might be that Zardari (or Nawaz Sharif) might be a better prospect for India than a rampaging Imran Khan and his friends. India badly needs energy security and the TAPI (Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India) pipeline would be important now that the much hyped KG-D6 gas fields have serious issues. Mr. Singh has therefore decided to export 5000 MW of electricity and export a slew of petroleum products and even natural gas through trucks immediately and later through a pipeline. He has decided to relax visa rules, encourage cross-border financial and banking services etc. Zardari wants even more from India if his fortunes are to be turned around. He wants to balance the public hatred for the US that is hurting him with the concessions from India. We know that furious Track-II discussions have been going on for about two years now. The restoration of the Composite Dialogue last year was an indicator of the thaw in the relationship. India is beginning to accept the usual stonewalling tactic of Pakistan in the 26/11 case because it probably feels that such an approach would help in the overall scheme of things. It is my inkling that some big ticket announcement is around the corner. Naturally, that announcement must be of such a nature that the Pakistani masses see concesions being prised out from India. The MFN carrot, being dangled infront of India, and its timeline of end-2012 coincides nicely with various developments. If India reneges on its promise, MFN might not materialize. India, in its eagerness and under pressure from the US, may be quite willing to concede as much as possible. However, it may be demanding some unwritten assurances in return, which of course, Pakistan can be expected to flout at the first instance as it happened after the Simla accord of c. 1972 when Pakistan refuted the secret promises that Zulfikar Ali Bhutto had given to Mrs. Indira Gandhi. He had pleaded for not including these in the written document so as to save the honour and dignity (H&D) of Pakistan. It is significant that the Indian Prime Minister, while referring to an invitation from his Pakistani counterpart to visit Islamabad, said, "something solid needs to be done before we can celebrate". Note the reference to the 'joint celebrations'; Mr. Man Mohan Singh did not say that "something solid needs to be done before I can visit Pakistan". The Pakistani side is now trying to tie up all the loose ends at the highest level, perhaps. The Pakistani side is now trying to tie up the loose ends at the highest level, perhaps.
The only way Pakistani economy can improve is if it turns to India. The only way Pakistan can defeat terrorism (if it really wants to) is when it turns to India. The only way that Zardari feels that he can retain power is with help from India. Thus, everything in Pakistan revolves around India. Unfortunately for Pakistan, India is like a quicksand for them. The more they try to extricate themselves from Indian influence, the deeper they are dragged into it. Therefore, Zardari is coming to India to seek help and understanding from a generous Mr. Man Mohan Singh. What a turn of events.
PS: Thank God, there was no one-on-one meeting at Seoul between Man Mohan Singh and Gilani. It could be different in New Delhi when Zardari meets Man Mohan Singh. Of course, language is not an issue between the two but I understand that Zardari can also speak fluent Punjabi. It is the one-on-one meeting that Indians must fear and Pakistanis must rejoice.
Showing posts with label jiyala. Show all posts
Showing posts with label jiyala. Show all posts
Monday, April 2, 2012
Tuesday, August 2, 2011
What is cooking between the US and the Pakistani Army ? - Part IV
In the two weeks since I posted the last part, more things have happened on the US-Pakistan front. As usual, the Pakistani civilian government is keeping quiet and is letting the Pakistani Army (PA) handle the developments and set the course for the future. And, true to its nature, the PA is keeping its particular narrow view alone in focus and is taking Pakistan once again to great trouble. Of course, no civilian government in Pakistan had ever felt confident about handling foreign affairs especially with the US and India and have always conceded space to the PA. Not that they had any choice anyway. The present government is no exception either. The foreign governments too, especially the US (and with the sole exception of India), had felt it prudent to deal directly with the PA bypassing the civilian governments even as they eulogised the virtues of democracy elsewhere. This has given the PA the exalted position of being the prima donna within the nation as the masses look up to the army in awe even though the PA has so far excelled only in conquering its own people and has been an utter failure whenever tested in battles with real armies. But, that is another issue for another post later on.
What then are the new incidents that have caused more downturn in the US-Pakistan relationship since the last post ? There are at least three. The most important was the arrest of a leading Kashmiri figure in the US for being an agent of the ISI. The next was the case of restrictions imposed on the movements of the US diplomatic staff within Pakistan and the third was the recall by the US of its CIA Station Chief in Islamabad.
On July 19, 2011, the FBI arrested Ghulam Nabi Fai, the Director of Kashmir Action Council (KAC), in Virgina over attempts to influence US politicians and opinion-makers on the Kashmir issue. The US Justice Department said the Kashmir American Council (KAC) had received up to $4 million in illegal contributions from the ISI. Ghulam Nabi Fai was arrested on the charge of having violated laws (Foreign Agents Registration Act, FARA) which prohibit work for foreign governments without registering with the Attorney General. The modus operandi for such funding involved illegal money transfer, known as hawala or hundi, in which money was paid by rich American Pakistanis in the US to the KAC and these people were then reimbursed the equal amount in Pakistan by the ISI. Ghulam Nabi Fai's 25-year liaison with the ISI came to a sudden and unexpected end. The US had been well aware of his activities for decades and the timing of the action against him clearly proved the steep downturn in the US-Pakistani relationship. The Justice Department also charged a second man, Zaheer Ahmad, with recruiting dummy donors for the KAC, through whom the ISI routed the funds. The chargesheet said that Dr. Fai reported to several ISI officials, identified as Brigadier Javed Aziz Khan, Brigadier Sohail Mehmood, Lieutenant-Colonel Tauqeer Mehmood Butt and the former head of the organisation's security directorate, Major-General Mumtaz Bajwa. This was quite unprecedented as the ranks and names of serving ISI officers were revealed for the first time by an US agency, something that was not done even after the horrendous 26/11 Mumbai attack. Another irritant in this episode is that Fai's partner-in-crime, Zaheer Ahmed, is in Pakistan and the latter may not extradite him to the US to stand trial. This has the potential of causing another diplomatic row. Understandably, everyone from Pakistani President and Prime Minister downwards have come to the defence of Fai and termed the episode as another conspiracy to tarnish the fair image of Pakistan.
By end of July, Pakistan had placed restrictions on the movements of the US embassy staff. Now, they require prior permission to travel to other cities. Pakistan refused permission recently for two groups of US embassy staff when they tried to enter Peshawar city last week. The Karachi-bound US Ambassador, Cameron Munter, was stopped at the Islamabad airport and was demanded to show the Pakistan Government issued No-Objection Certificate (NOC) for his travel. He strongly protested the demand and later took the matter up with President Zardari. Pakistan has clarified that such restrictions were imposed to provide more security for the foreign diplomats and were there for diplomats of all countries and not specifically for only the Americans. The Americans, protected by their own security detail and ever wary of protection from Pakistani policemen (like Mr. Qadri of the Punjab Special Police), are used to enjoying unprecedented liberties within Pakistan for six decades now are not buying this argument. An American official termed this as 'harassment'. Since the 'You-will-be-bombed-to-stone-age' threat issued by the tough Richard Armitage in the wake of 9/11, Pakistan has given extraordinary license to not only the US diplomats but also their intelligence agents. In the new tactically brilliant bravado that seems to be sweeping across the top leadership of the PA, decisions have been taken apparently to prick the US. The US has threatened to impose counter restrictions on the Pakistani embassy/consular staff in the US.
In recent months two CIA Station Chiefs based in the US Embassy in Islamabad had to leave suddenly after their identities were revealed to the public, something that could not have happened without the help of the ISI. The latest was just last week.
In the meanwhile, strange political developments are taking place within Pakistan. By a quirk of fate, the PA has come closer to Pakistan People's Party (PPP), its arch enemy since the 70s and moved away from the usually closer Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Nawaz Sharif, in a public meeting in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), chose to describe the current governance as 'military democracy'. He has also been portraying PPP and the PA as friendly towards the US, thus trying to cash in on the prevailing atmosphere of complete hatred towards the Americans. The PML-N has also damned the intelligence agencies for the death of Syed Saleem Shahzad. In the current dire economic and political situation, the opposition (read PML-N) enjoys a natural advantage over the ruling PPP. The PPP is trying to close the gap by co-opting strangely the support of the PA. The PA is willing too because the PPP appears to it as the lesser of the two evils at the current juncture. The PA knows that the other alternative, Imran Khan of PTI (Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf) is a political light-weight. In a speech to his PPP jiyalas at Naudero, the place of burial for the Bhutto clan, Zardari referred to Nawaz Sharif as a 'Maulvi' and said that he was 'maligning the armed forces' and accused him of "creating differences between the people of Pakistan and the army which was sacrificing the lives of soldiers and officers for the sake of the country". For his part, the Interior Minister, Rehman Malik said that the institutions which were "arms and strength of the nation should not be criticised". After an unlikely ally in the form of PPP (forced by circumstances beyond their control), it was MQM's turn to support the PA and the ISI. Since the MQM and the PPP have been on a killing spree against each other in Karachi and with a frequently-breaking alliance too, the MQM used the opportunity to support the PA/ISI and take a swipe at the PPP simultaneously. MQM Chief Altaf Hussain said, "the government is plotting against the armed forces, the ISI and institutions responsible for the national security in collusion with the United States." MQM is the creation of the PA to blunt Sind nationalism in the 80s.
Thus, the recent and fresh wave of American hatred, which actually goes back to the mid-1960s, is being exploited by all power players of Pakistan. But, none of them is pragmatic and has interests of Pakistan in mind though they claim otherwise. At this most critical juncture in Pakistan's history (it is another matter that every passing day has been a critical juncture for Pakistan since Independence), Pakistan simply cannot afford to antagonize the US but it is once again displaying in abundance its tactical bravado and strategic stupidity.
Back to the actions of the PA. Before laying down office as the CIA Chief and taking over new responsibilities as the Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta visited Pakistan in mid June and exposed the Pakistani perfidy. He had earlier decided to test their sincerity by sharing intelligence on two Improvised Explosive Device(IED)-making facilities, one in Miramshah in North Waziristan and the other somewhere in South Waziristan, and asking the PA to take action. This was a test for the PA which always demanded 'actionable intelligence' whenever anybody accused it of 'protecting' terrorists. The PA once again proved that it cannot change its spots. It promptly leaked the intelligence and that too within 24 hours of receiving it from the CIA and forewarned the terrorists who vacated their bomb-making factory before the PA raid. The CIA Chief showed Gen. Kayani and the ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Pasha a 10-minute video clip of the terrorists evacuating the two 'facilities'. When Pakistani troops later arrived at the scene of the two bomb-making facilities, the militants were gone and the PA promptly claimed that the US intelligence was inaccurate. It was no coincidence that the bomb-making facilities belonged to the 'good Taliban', namely Sirajuddin Haqqani and Gul Bahadur. Panetta quit his CIA post after nailing once again the Pakistani syndrome of 'running-with-the-hares-and-hunting-with-the-hounds'. All these caused so much downturn in the CIA-ISI relationship that Pakistan had to eat its brave words.
Within the PA itself, reports speak of disenchantment of mid-level officers with the top brass. There has been open questioning of Gen. Kayani not only by some of his Corps Commanders but also by middle-level officers. One report spoke of open jeering of Gen. Kayani in a town-hall meeting with a unit of his troops. These are indicators of quite serious things within the PA. It was the mid-level officers of the PA and PAF (Pakistan Air Force) who ousted Gen. Yahya Khan in c. 1971 after the Bangladesh disaster.
So, finally, ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha decided to visit Washington D.C. on July 14 for a one-and-a-half-day trip and meet with the acting CIA Chief Michael Morrell as David Petraues was yet to take over from outgoing chief, Panetta. Apparently, this was a fence-mending mission as both sides said, after the meeting, that the CIA-ISI relationship was 'back on track'. His very first visit in October, 2008, as ISI chief, immediately after taking over the job, was also to 'remove the distrust' and the latest was also to remove 'more of the same'. In the intervening three years, the chasm of distrust has only grown wider and deeper. Anyway, both sides expressed 'happiness' after the meeting. Considering that it is the US that is holding all the aces, the expression of happiness means that Pakistan acceded to US demands and probably in return got some US commitments against India, a normal US practice in dealing with Pakistan. There were also other meetings in Islamabad at the same time. The US Centcom Chief, Gen. James Mattis, met Gen. Kayani simultaneously in Islamabad. A day later, the outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen David Petraeus, and his successor-to-be, Lt. Gen. John Allen, met the Pakistani Army chief.
In the meanwhile, a retired US General Jack Keane, while talking to a Washington-based think tank, openly accused Gen. Kayani and Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha of complicity with the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces. At the same time, the US vice admiral William McRaven, who oversaw the Bin Laden raid, said the US military believes that Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar was in Pakistan and had asked the Pakistani army to locate him.
What are Pakistan's demands to the US ? It wants the CIA-operated drone strikes to take place only with Pakistani concurrence and after the US had shared with it the targets identified and got its approval. Thus, it wants to ensure that either the US is influenced not to target the 'good Taliban', or if the US refuses, at least be in a position to tip the friends off in good time before the strikes. The US, having seen Pakistani perfidy for years now and in a hurry to drawdown troops amidst on-going talks with the Taliban, are unwilling to oblige them for a change. The PA has also made it clear to the Americans, after the Abbottabad incident, that the CIA cannot mount any independent operations within the Pakistani territory. Pakistan, therefore, is demanding new 'rules of engagement' with the CIA unlike the 'blank cheque' given earlier by Gen. Musharraf which has severely embarrassed both the incumbent civilian and military leadership after the Raymond Davis and Abbottabad incidents. Pakistan is also greatly upset with the US administration over its 'independent' talks with a section of the Taliban by-passing Pakistan. Since the time of the Afghan jihad, when Pakistan insisted that all aid and funding must be routed through its ISI and ISI alone, it has become an unwritten rule that the US would conduct all its Afghan business through the Pakistanis. Now that the US has begun to do things on its own, the Pakistanis are overcome with the fear of becoming less and less relevant. This causes them great grief because the concept of 'strategic depth' to defeat India continues to remain central in the Pakistani scheme of things. It is this same obsession that makes Pakistan fear India re-establishing even a normal relationship with Afghanistan. Pakistan does not want India to train the Afghan Army. The paranoia that dominates Pakistani minds is accentuated these days by the apparent proximity between India and the US that has cut across both Democratic and Republican administrations. It is Pakistan's perception that India is favoured as a strategic partner by the US because it can prove to be a counterweight to China. On the other hand, the PA recognizes that there is no strategic US interest in Pakistan save for two: one, the US certainly does not want jihadi terrorism to go back to pre 9/11 days in the Af-Pak territories and two, the US is averse to a nuclear-weapon possessing nation wracked by Islamic extremism slipping out of its control or failing with disastrous consequences for everyone. Hence, Pakistani Army fears that the US would blunt Pakistan's involvement in managing Afghanistan and correspondingly allow more Indian influence in Afghanistan, a double whammy. Pakistan is also desperately seeking assurance from the US that another Abbottabad-like assault would not be mounted by the US to eliminate other High Value Targets (HVTs) still living comfortably in Pakistan. The US has already said that Ayman al Zawahiri is in FATA and needs to be captured by Pakistan. Pakistan may not know how much intelligence the US has on Zawahiri. Pakistan is therefore in a bind. It cannot move him to safety because Pakistan may think that he may be constantly under US watch. Any move to contact him could therefore expose the ISI hand, which could be disastrous coming in the wake of Abbottabad and the two instances of ISI helping the jihadi terrorists making bombs escape raids. If Zawahiri is not saved, the US could grab him from Pakistani soil and that could cause more serious damage to the US-Pakistan relationship with the US demanding an unacceptable price from Pakistan for normalizing future relationship. Pasha might have therefore pleaded with the US to cut some slack for the PA and the ISI in the business of HVTs.
Pakistan also knows that for all its brave talks of China replacing the US if the latter decided to cut aid, PRC is no match for the US in arms, ammunition, funding and political support for Pakistan in multilateral agencies etc. The defiant posture it struck has to give way sooner than later to a realistic stand vis-a-vis US. At the same time, it has to work out with the US a face saving formula so that the already-dented image of the PA and the ISI is not damaged any further. In confirmation of this hypothesis, the ISPR said the very next day that the US aid was not even on the agenda of Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha, thus giving away that the aid issue was indeed on the table. The Pakistani Foreign Office spokeswoman confirmed that "negotiations were underway for the resumption of [stalled] military assistance". Another serious issue on the table might have been the 'rules of enagagement' that Pakistan may now want to re-draw with the US, especially after the Abbottabad incident and US reactions to the assassination of Syed Saleem Shehzad. For the Americans, the expulsion of the 120 trainers of the Frontier Corps and the denial of visas to American officials needed to be sorted out. The visa issue has been plaguing the relationship ever since Musharraf disappeared from the scene. In c. 2008, Prime Minister Gilani was rumoured to have overruled Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi and issued several hundred visas to US officials without any scrutiny. It is well known that the then Foreign Minister Qureshi represented the PA in the cabinet and therefore the Prime Minister defied the PA diktat in issuing those visas. Pakistani Ambassador Haqqani has been regularly pilloried in the Pakistani press about this. The visa issue again cropped up after the Raymond Davis incident and intensified after the May 2 Abbottabad event. After the recent US announcement of aid halt, a Pentagon spokesman had directly linked that issue with the non-availability of Pakistani visas for US officials. The July 19 arrest of the ISI agent Ghulam Nabi Fai and his indictment thereafter show that the July 14 meeting of the ISI and CIA chiefs at Langley, Va did not go smoothly. Upon his return from the US, the ISI Chief also made an unpublicized visit to China. It could be to seek the Chinese reassurances in the wake of further deterioration in the US-Pakistan relationship, though there was also the Xinjiang Uyghur problem also engaging the Chinese attention.
Interesting times ahead. There is never a dull moment with Pakistan around.
What then are the new incidents that have caused more downturn in the US-Pakistan relationship since the last post ? There are at least three. The most important was the arrest of a leading Kashmiri figure in the US for being an agent of the ISI. The next was the case of restrictions imposed on the movements of the US diplomatic staff within Pakistan and the third was the recall by the US of its CIA Station Chief in Islamabad.
On July 19, 2011, the FBI arrested Ghulam Nabi Fai, the Director of Kashmir Action Council (KAC), in Virgina over attempts to influence US politicians and opinion-makers on the Kashmir issue. The US Justice Department said the Kashmir American Council (KAC) had received up to $4 million in illegal contributions from the ISI. Ghulam Nabi Fai was arrested on the charge of having violated laws (Foreign Agents Registration Act, FARA) which prohibit work for foreign governments without registering with the Attorney General. The modus operandi for such funding involved illegal money transfer, known as hawala or hundi, in which money was paid by rich American Pakistanis in the US to the KAC and these people were then reimbursed the equal amount in Pakistan by the ISI. Ghulam Nabi Fai's 25-year liaison with the ISI came to a sudden and unexpected end. The US had been well aware of his activities for decades and the timing of the action against him clearly proved the steep downturn in the US-Pakistani relationship. The Justice Department also charged a second man, Zaheer Ahmad, with recruiting dummy donors for the KAC, through whom the ISI routed the funds. The chargesheet said that Dr. Fai reported to several ISI officials, identified as Brigadier Javed Aziz Khan, Brigadier Sohail Mehmood, Lieutenant-Colonel Tauqeer Mehmood Butt and the former head of the organisation's security directorate, Major-General Mumtaz Bajwa. This was quite unprecedented as the ranks and names of serving ISI officers were revealed for the first time by an US agency, something that was not done even after the horrendous 26/11 Mumbai attack. Another irritant in this episode is that Fai's partner-in-crime, Zaheer Ahmed, is in Pakistan and the latter may not extradite him to the US to stand trial. This has the potential of causing another diplomatic row. Understandably, everyone from Pakistani President and Prime Minister downwards have come to the defence of Fai and termed the episode as another conspiracy to tarnish the fair image of Pakistan.
By end of July, Pakistan had placed restrictions on the movements of the US embassy staff. Now, they require prior permission to travel to other cities. Pakistan refused permission recently for two groups of US embassy staff when they tried to enter Peshawar city last week. The Karachi-bound US Ambassador, Cameron Munter, was stopped at the Islamabad airport and was demanded to show the Pakistan Government issued No-Objection Certificate (NOC) for his travel. He strongly protested the demand and later took the matter up with President Zardari. Pakistan has clarified that such restrictions were imposed to provide more security for the foreign diplomats and were there for diplomats of all countries and not specifically for only the Americans. The Americans, protected by their own security detail and ever wary of protection from Pakistani policemen (like Mr. Qadri of the Punjab Special Police), are used to enjoying unprecedented liberties within Pakistan for six decades now are not buying this argument. An American official termed this as 'harassment'. Since the 'You-will-be-bombed-to-stone-age' threat issued by the tough Richard Armitage in the wake of 9/11, Pakistan has given extraordinary license to not only the US diplomats but also their intelligence agents. In the new tactically brilliant bravado that seems to be sweeping across the top leadership of the PA, decisions have been taken apparently to prick the US. The US has threatened to impose counter restrictions on the Pakistani embassy/consular staff in the US.
In recent months two CIA Station Chiefs based in the US Embassy in Islamabad had to leave suddenly after their identities were revealed to the public, something that could not have happened without the help of the ISI. The latest was just last week.
In the meanwhile, strange political developments are taking place within Pakistan. By a quirk of fate, the PA has come closer to Pakistan People's Party (PPP), its arch enemy since the 70s and moved away from the usually closer Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N). Nawaz Sharif, in a public meeting in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK), chose to describe the current governance as 'military democracy'. He has also been portraying PPP and the PA as friendly towards the US, thus trying to cash in on the prevailing atmosphere of complete hatred towards the Americans. The PML-N has also damned the intelligence agencies for the death of Syed Saleem Shahzad. In the current dire economic and political situation, the opposition (read PML-N) enjoys a natural advantage over the ruling PPP. The PPP is trying to close the gap by co-opting strangely the support of the PA. The PA is willing too because the PPP appears to it as the lesser of the two evils at the current juncture. The PA knows that the other alternative, Imran Khan of PTI (Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf) is a political light-weight. In a speech to his PPP jiyalas at Naudero, the place of burial for the Bhutto clan, Zardari referred to Nawaz Sharif as a 'Maulvi' and said that he was 'maligning the armed forces' and accused him of "creating differences between the people of Pakistan and the army which was sacrificing the lives of soldiers and officers for the sake of the country". For his part, the Interior Minister, Rehman Malik said that the institutions which were "arms and strength of the nation should not be criticised". After an unlikely ally in the form of PPP (forced by circumstances beyond their control), it was MQM's turn to support the PA and the ISI. Since the MQM and the PPP have been on a killing spree against each other in Karachi and with a frequently-breaking alliance too, the MQM used the opportunity to support the PA/ISI and take a swipe at the PPP simultaneously. MQM Chief Altaf Hussain said, "the government is plotting against the armed forces, the ISI and institutions responsible for the national security in collusion with the United States." MQM is the creation of the PA to blunt Sind nationalism in the 80s.
Thus, the recent and fresh wave of American hatred, which actually goes back to the mid-1960s, is being exploited by all power players of Pakistan. But, none of them is pragmatic and has interests of Pakistan in mind though they claim otherwise. At this most critical juncture in Pakistan's history (it is another matter that every passing day has been a critical juncture for Pakistan since Independence), Pakistan simply cannot afford to antagonize the US but it is once again displaying in abundance its tactical bravado and strategic stupidity.
Back to the actions of the PA. Before laying down office as the CIA Chief and taking over new responsibilities as the Defence Secretary, Leon Panetta visited Pakistan in mid June and exposed the Pakistani perfidy. He had earlier decided to test their sincerity by sharing intelligence on two Improvised Explosive Device(IED)-making facilities, one in Miramshah in North Waziristan and the other somewhere in South Waziristan, and asking the PA to take action. This was a test for the PA which always demanded 'actionable intelligence' whenever anybody accused it of 'protecting' terrorists. The PA once again proved that it cannot change its spots. It promptly leaked the intelligence and that too within 24 hours of receiving it from the CIA and forewarned the terrorists who vacated their bomb-making factory before the PA raid. The CIA Chief showed Gen. Kayani and the ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Pasha a 10-minute video clip of the terrorists evacuating the two 'facilities'. When Pakistani troops later arrived at the scene of the two bomb-making facilities, the militants were gone and the PA promptly claimed that the US intelligence was inaccurate. It was no coincidence that the bomb-making facilities belonged to the 'good Taliban', namely Sirajuddin Haqqani and Gul Bahadur. Panetta quit his CIA post after nailing once again the Pakistani syndrome of 'running-with-the-hares-and-hunting-with-the-hounds'. All these caused so much downturn in the CIA-ISI relationship that Pakistan had to eat its brave words.
Within the PA itself, reports speak of disenchantment of mid-level officers with the top brass. There has been open questioning of Gen. Kayani not only by some of his Corps Commanders but also by middle-level officers. One report spoke of open jeering of Gen. Kayani in a town-hall meeting with a unit of his troops. These are indicators of quite serious things within the PA. It was the mid-level officers of the PA and PAF (Pakistan Air Force) who ousted Gen. Yahya Khan in c. 1971 after the Bangladesh disaster.
So, finally, ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha decided to visit Washington D.C. on July 14 for a one-and-a-half-day trip and meet with the acting CIA Chief Michael Morrell as David Petraues was yet to take over from outgoing chief, Panetta. Apparently, this was a fence-mending mission as both sides said, after the meeting, that the CIA-ISI relationship was 'back on track'. His very first visit in October, 2008, as ISI chief, immediately after taking over the job, was also to 'remove the distrust' and the latest was also to remove 'more of the same'. In the intervening three years, the chasm of distrust has only grown wider and deeper. Anyway, both sides expressed 'happiness' after the meeting. Considering that it is the US that is holding all the aces, the expression of happiness means that Pakistan acceded to US demands and probably in return got some US commitments against India, a normal US practice in dealing with Pakistan. There were also other meetings in Islamabad at the same time. The US Centcom Chief, Gen. James Mattis, met Gen. Kayani simultaneously in Islamabad. A day later, the outgoing commander of U.S. forces in Afghanistan, Gen David Petraeus, and his successor-to-be, Lt. Gen. John Allen, met the Pakistani Army chief.
In the meanwhile, a retired US General Jack Keane, while talking to a Washington-based think tank, openly accused Gen. Kayani and Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha of complicity with the Taliban and Al Qaeda forces. At the same time, the US vice admiral William McRaven, who oversaw the Bin Laden raid, said the US military believes that Taliban supreme leader Mullah Omar was in Pakistan and had asked the Pakistani army to locate him.
What are Pakistan's demands to the US ? It wants the CIA-operated drone strikes to take place only with Pakistani concurrence and after the US had shared with it the targets identified and got its approval. Thus, it wants to ensure that either the US is influenced not to target the 'good Taliban', or if the US refuses, at least be in a position to tip the friends off in good time before the strikes. The US, having seen Pakistani perfidy for years now and in a hurry to drawdown troops amidst on-going talks with the Taliban, are unwilling to oblige them for a change. The PA has also made it clear to the Americans, after the Abbottabad incident, that the CIA cannot mount any independent operations within the Pakistani territory. Pakistan, therefore, is demanding new 'rules of engagement' with the CIA unlike the 'blank cheque' given earlier by Gen. Musharraf which has severely embarrassed both the incumbent civilian and military leadership after the Raymond Davis and Abbottabad incidents. Pakistan is also greatly upset with the US administration over its 'independent' talks with a section of the Taliban by-passing Pakistan. Since the time of the Afghan jihad, when Pakistan insisted that all aid and funding must be routed through its ISI and ISI alone, it has become an unwritten rule that the US would conduct all its Afghan business through the Pakistanis. Now that the US has begun to do things on its own, the Pakistanis are overcome with the fear of becoming less and less relevant. This causes them great grief because the concept of 'strategic depth' to defeat India continues to remain central in the Pakistani scheme of things. It is this same obsession that makes Pakistan fear India re-establishing even a normal relationship with Afghanistan. Pakistan does not want India to train the Afghan Army. The paranoia that dominates Pakistani minds is accentuated these days by the apparent proximity between India and the US that has cut across both Democratic and Republican administrations. It is Pakistan's perception that India is favoured as a strategic partner by the US because it can prove to be a counterweight to China. On the other hand, the PA recognizes that there is no strategic US interest in Pakistan save for two: one, the US certainly does not want jihadi terrorism to go back to pre 9/11 days in the Af-Pak territories and two, the US is averse to a nuclear-weapon possessing nation wracked by Islamic extremism slipping out of its control or failing with disastrous consequences for everyone. Hence, Pakistani Army fears that the US would blunt Pakistan's involvement in managing Afghanistan and correspondingly allow more Indian influence in Afghanistan, a double whammy. Pakistan is also desperately seeking assurance from the US that another Abbottabad-like assault would not be mounted by the US to eliminate other High Value Targets (HVTs) still living comfortably in Pakistan. The US has already said that Ayman al Zawahiri is in FATA and needs to be captured by Pakistan. Pakistan may not know how much intelligence the US has on Zawahiri. Pakistan is therefore in a bind. It cannot move him to safety because Pakistan may think that he may be constantly under US watch. Any move to contact him could therefore expose the ISI hand, which could be disastrous coming in the wake of Abbottabad and the two instances of ISI helping the jihadi terrorists making bombs escape raids. If Zawahiri is not saved, the US could grab him from Pakistani soil and that could cause more serious damage to the US-Pakistan relationship with the US demanding an unacceptable price from Pakistan for normalizing future relationship. Pasha might have therefore pleaded with the US to cut some slack for the PA and the ISI in the business of HVTs.
Pakistan also knows that for all its brave talks of China replacing the US if the latter decided to cut aid, PRC is no match for the US in arms, ammunition, funding and political support for Pakistan in multilateral agencies etc. The defiant posture it struck has to give way sooner than later to a realistic stand vis-a-vis US. At the same time, it has to work out with the US a face saving formula so that the already-dented image of the PA and the ISI is not damaged any further. In confirmation of this hypothesis, the ISPR said the very next day that the US aid was not even on the agenda of Lt. Gen. Shuja Pasha, thus giving away that the aid issue was indeed on the table. The Pakistani Foreign Office spokeswoman confirmed that "negotiations were underway for the resumption of [stalled] military assistance". Another serious issue on the table might have been the 'rules of enagagement' that Pakistan may now want to re-draw with the US, especially after the Abbottabad incident and US reactions to the assassination of Syed Saleem Shehzad. For the Americans, the expulsion of the 120 trainers of the Frontier Corps and the denial of visas to American officials needed to be sorted out. The visa issue has been plaguing the relationship ever since Musharraf disappeared from the scene. In c. 2008, Prime Minister Gilani was rumoured to have overruled Foreign Minister Makhdoom Shah Mahmood Qureshi and issued several hundred visas to US officials without any scrutiny. It is well known that the then Foreign Minister Qureshi represented the PA in the cabinet and therefore the Prime Minister defied the PA diktat in issuing those visas. Pakistani Ambassador Haqqani has been regularly pilloried in the Pakistani press about this. The visa issue again cropped up after the Raymond Davis incident and intensified after the May 2 Abbottabad event. After the recent US announcement of aid halt, a Pentagon spokesman had directly linked that issue with the non-availability of Pakistani visas for US officials. The July 19 arrest of the ISI agent Ghulam Nabi Fai and his indictment thereafter show that the July 14 meeting of the ISI and CIA chiefs at Langley, Va did not go smoothly. Upon his return from the US, the ISI Chief also made an unpublicized visit to China. It could be to seek the Chinese reassurances in the wake of further deterioration in the US-Pakistan relationship, though there was also the Xinjiang Uyghur problem also engaging the Chinese attention.
Interesting times ahead. There is never a dull moment with Pakistan around.
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